The Fourth Turning

In a 1997 book called The Forth Turning by Neil Howe and William Strauss, a generational theory is presented which concludes that every 80 to 100 years we start a new era of sorts.

Each 80 to 100 year period is called a saeculum, and each saeculum is divided into four parts. When we move from one part to the next is called a turning.

The first part is called “The High.” During The High, institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majority often feel stifled by the conformity. According to the authors, the most recent First Turning in the U.S. was the post-World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of John F. Kennedy on Nov. 22, 1963.

The second 20 to 25 years is called “The Awakening.” This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of self-awareness, spirituality and personal authenticity. Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty. Strauss and Howe say the U.S.’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid-1960s to the tax revolts of the early 1980s.

The third Turning is called “The Unraveling.” The mood of this era they say is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. The authors say Highs come after Crises, when society wants to coalesce and build and avoid the death and destruction of the previous crisis. Unravelings come after Awakenings, when society wants to enjoy life. They say the most recent Unraveling in the U.S. began in the 1980s and includes the Long Boom and Culture Wars.

The fourth Turning is called “The Crisis.” This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group.

The book’s theory is far more in depth than we can go into here, but it is fascinating to read and see how the authors weave the theory into our history.

The bad news is the turning we are currently in is The Crisis which supposedly started with the 2008 financial crisis. So we’re lucky number 13 years into it and everything has gone to hell in a hand basket. And how many years ago was the 1929 market crash? It was 79 years ago. Right on time for this theory.

While this theory is interesting to learn about, scientists have referred to it as pseudoscience and one person said it has just as much scientific worth as the books of Nostradamus. Ouch.

The good news is that we only have seven to 12 years left until we return to The High. But who knows what could go wrong in the years before that happens. What will happen with our virus situation? And this theory is not just about the U.S. What’s going to happen over the next few years in Afghanistan? Or China or Russia?

Only time will tell.—K.W.C.