A comment made by a member of the public after one of the recent COVID-19 updates posted on The Reporter website—www.rockdalereporter. com—points out just how difficult it is to grasp exactly how to react to the numbers we get every day on the virus’s surge.
The reader, upon seeing the count had risen by five or 13, or whatever it was, since the previous day lamented “we’re going the wrong way.”
Apparently some are under the impression that at some point the count of COVID-19 positive cases, which has been the main statistic focused on since the start of this pandemic, will reverse itself and head lower.
No, that will never happen. When you read the COVID-19 count in Milam County is 90, or 120, or 133 or whatever, that is a cumulative count of the number of positive cases since the nasty virus arrived in the county back in March.
It will not, cannot, go down. If it were to stop climbing tomorrow—a wonderful and blessed occurrence that would be—the number would stay the same and we would read, forever, in statistical publications that X number of persons in Milam County tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020.
Many of those whatever-the-number-is have already recovered. Example: According to the Milam County Health Department early Tuesday, that day, 93 persons in the cumulative listing have recovered. That’s not subtracted from the 120 overall cases logged for that day because those 93 were once diagnosed with COVID-19 and will always be part of that cumulative statistic. More cases were added later. (See page 1A).
There is, however, a number that’s always released in tandem with the number of new cases which does go up and, believe it or not, down and it’s definitely worth thinking about.
It’s the number of “active cases.”
On June 4 there were two active cases. In a week that number went to nine. It was 17 on June 18 and then 23 on June 25.
But the active case figure, which also goes up, can also go down. It dropped to 21 by July 1. As of Monday it was still 21 but went up to 40 by early Wednesday.
It’s probably a good idea to pay attention to more than just the cumulative total, although it is obviously the most dramatic figure the nation and world are focused upon right now.
It’s obvious the virus is surging but even these numbers won’t tell the whole story for many months. The big wild card is how many people have become infected and don’t know it.
That group is also the main reason wearing masks in public remains a good idea.
Masks are a middle ground between “let’s shut down the entire nation all the time” and “let’s pretend it will just go away on its own.”
What’s the bottom line on this puzzling, serious affair?
Numbers can be informative and confusing and frustrating.
But not as frustrating as getting COVID-19. Stay safe and, yes, wear that mask.—M.B.
- Log in or Subscribe to post comments.