In many ways Milam County is growing, but interestingly, the population of the county actually declined during the last decade. According to the U.S. Census, our population was stagnant from 2010 through 2020 by three individuals from 24,577 to 24,574. In fact, it is estimated that the county population decreased in 2021 by .91%. But with all the new business growth expected to come to the county, one would guess the population will increase rapidly.
However, the State’s best demographer, Dr. Don Potts, estimates that the population of Milam County will actually continue to decrease through 2050. This is a phenomenon that applies to many of the rural counties of Texas. Why?
First, in many instances the young people leave home for the big city to go to school or for work. They marry, have children and simply do not come back to live in the county.
Second, the statewide fertility rate is at 1.7, which is low. A woman in her childbearing years must produce 2.1 children to replace herself and her partner. At the current rate of 1.7 that is not occurring. This is also not just a Milam County phenomenon, but one that is affecting many states throughout our country, including New York and California.
During the last decade the overall population in Texas increased by about 15.9% to just over 29 million. This was more than any other state in the nation. But, this is due primarily to migration. In fact, in 2021 over 300,000 migrated to Texas from other states. Again, this was more than any other state. However, those that migrate to Texas are well educated and typically go to the larger cities for higher skilled, better paying jobs. Therefore, the rural counties of the state, including Milam County, have a negative migration factor.
While the Texas population is expected to grow to 47 million by 2050, Milam County and an additional 86 rural counties will continue to experience a stagnant or declining population for the reasons set forth herein. In fact, most of the population will continue to be along the I-35 corridor, where 87% of the Texas population lives today. Of course, this includes many of the major urban areas of the state.
No doubt people will migrate to Milam County, but people will continue to leave the county and our fertility rate will probably not increase the population in the county, just as we have seen over the last 10 years. If you would like more factual information about projected Milam County demographics, check out https:// demographics.texas.gov/.
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