The energy conservation alert from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) last month has caused concern that outages and rolling blackouts will wreak havoc like they did in February when an ice storm crippled the state, but a Texas A&M expert doesn't expect any major issues this summer.
Instead, Thomas Overbye, director of the university's Smart Grid Center, said he's much more concerned by the potential vulnerability of the electric grids that power the entire country to what are called high impact, low frequency (HILF) events.
“There is always a risk of a blackout, but I don’t expect any significant problems this summer with the ERCOT grid due to the heat,” said Overbye, a professor of electrical and computer engineering. He said the alert was caused by a generation shortfall due, in part, by some unexpected forced generator outages of mostly fossil fuel units, as well as a higher-than-expected electric load.
“While concerning, particularly in light of the events from February, what occurred this month does not indicate any fundamental weaknesses or problems with the Texas electric grid,” Overbye said.
What does keep him up at night are vulnerabilities in the power grids that serve the entire nation and can turn events into catastrophes.
“Characteristics of HILF events include some combination of large size, long duration and potentially catastrophic societal impact,” he said. “HILF events can occur initially in the electricity grid and then spread to other sectors of society, start in another sector and spread to the electricity grid, or simultaneously affect both.”
Examples of HILF events include a physical attack on the grid, a cyber attack, geomagnetic disturbances, or severe weather events such as ice storms.
Overbye said two major events in 2020- 2021 demonstrated threats to the grid, and that the results could have been much worse.
“The first event – as a positive example of reliable grid functioning – was the grid’s performance at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis,” he said. “In the early days of the pandemic, when fear was widespread and store shelves emptied as many sheltered in place, the lights stayed on. That the grid worked as it was supposed to during this time was due in no small part to the dedication of the many individuals who keep our critical infrastructure running.”
But the second example showed what happens when the grid doesn't function reliably, in this case due to record cold.
“The grid in Texas faltered and appears to have almost collapsed,” Overbye said. “While the events of February were certainly bad, had the grid failed altogether, the results would most likely have been much worse.”
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